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本帖最后由 兔子跑吧 于 2013-1-31 11:01 编辑
In July 2012, Canadian NGO Probe International published a report called “Earthquake Hazards and Large Dams in Western China”, by John Jackson, a pseudonym. He reportedly has four decades experience studying earthquakes and seismic faults. For the report, Jackson looked at 130 sites in western China where dams have been built, are under construction or proposed, cross-referencing dam locations with maps of seismic hazard. The rivers affected include the Yarlung Zangbo, Parlung Zangbo, Nu River, Lancang, Yalong, Dadu, Min and Yellow rivers. He found that 48.2% of the dams were in zones of high to very high seismic hazard, while 50.4% were in zones of moderate seismic hazard. Only 1.4% were located in zones of low seismic hazard. The report argues that the rapid rate of dam construction in areas of high seismic hazard in western China could have disastrous consequences for both the economy and the people.
2012年7月，加拿大非政府组织“国际探索”发布《中国西部地震灾害与大坝》研究报告。报告作者约翰•杰克逊是一位从事地震和断裂带研究40余年的美国地质学家。他实地走访了中国西部河流上已建、在建以及计划建造的130多座大坝坝址，对中国西部的雅鲁藏布江、帕隆藏布江、怒江、澜沧江、雅砻江、大渡河、岷江及黄河上游等地的大坝选址与地震危险区进行比较研究发现：48.2%的大坝坐落在高至极高的地震灾害危险区，其余有 50.4%在中度地震危险区，仅有 1.4%在地震灾害低危区。报告指出，中国在西部地震高发区建设的大坝数量目前正高速增长，这是对经济和国民有潜在灾难性后果的“危险尝试”。
On 24 August, Zhang Boting, deputy secretary of the China Society for Hydropower Engineering, issued a written response in which he stressed that safety precautions are taken when dams are built in areas at risk of earthquakes. He added that reservoirs can trigger small earthquakes, releasing energy that might otherwise build up and cause large quakes. In other words, dams actually reduce earthquake risks.
8月24日，中国水利发电工程学会副秘书长张博庭(1982年1月毕业于北京理工大学力学专业。1988年毕业于中国水利水电科学院研究生院,，教授、高级工程师,主要从事水电站大坝设计研究、坝体应力分析计算和实验研究以及工程结构可靠度分析等科研工作)撰文回应，地震高发区水坝的抗震安全有保障，水库可诱发小地震释放能量，避免大地震发生，且水电站建设有助于当地的抗震减灾。
John Jackson and Zhang’s positions couldn’t be further apart.
双方观点针锋相对.
Click here to download the report.
(上图为建设中的金安桥水电站大坝, 位于云南省丽江市境内，金沙江中游河段水电规划“一库八级”开发方案的第五级电站，总装机容量240万kW,多年平均发电量110.43亿kW·h)
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